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Why Cash Flow?
Recent accounting scandals only
re-emphasize the need to focus on cash - "Cash is King".
One rule of thumb that you can rely on is that "Cash is King" (most rules
of thumb are either wrong or dated).
Net cash flow from operations should be your fundamental yardstick in (i)
measuring the value of your business, (ii) determining the amount you are
willing to pay for an existing business, and (iii) considering possible
business improvement options.
Your business is fundamentally
no different than any other investment - whether a personal CD, bond or stock
investment; whether the business is a sole proprietorship, private corporation
or publicly traded corporation; and whether the business is US or
internationally based. Take a bond as an example.
When considering the value
of a bond, whether publicly traded or privately held, you pay a fixed amount
and receive a series of future cash payments. The fixed amount you pay
is the present value (e.g., today's value at the point of decision) of the
future cash flow stream. In calculating the amount you should pay for a
bond, an interest rate is assumed for present valuing purposes. This
assumed interest rate is based on the inherent risk of the bond. The
higher the risk, the higher returns investors will require in an efficient
market.
The US Government bond market
is perhaps the most efficient interest rate market, and the yields on US
Government securities are typically defined as the risk-free rate. A
rational investor would only invest in risky ventures yielding more than the
risk-free return, with the return exceeding the risk-free return compensating
the investor for assuming the additional risk.
Just like a bond, an investor in a
business, asset or any other commodity expects to receive his investment back
and a cash return. Any other benefits of investing in the asset /
project (whether perceived or real to the investor) are not compensated for in
an efficient market. Cash is King.
Unlike net income and other
accounting line items which have been so easily manipulated in recent history,
only an accurate representation of business cash flow allows accurate control
and planning. All the cash impacts of a venture can not be obtained from
audited (or unaudited) financial statements nor a simple profit and loss statement
typically used by many businesses. A full GAAP-based historical
representation of business performance on a cash flow basis and a forward looking analysis of
alternative growth options which considers tax impacts is required.
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